2013 Preakness Picks: Top 5 and Long Shot

It was a rough at the Derby, so time to bounce back in the Preakness.

1. Orb (1) - I see a similar race to the Derby, and will double-up like I'll Have Another
2. Mylute (5)
3. Will Take Charge (7)
4. Oxbow (6)
5. Departing (4)

Longshot: Given the smaller field, not really a lot of room for a major upset, but I think Oxbow (6) has the best shot of the longer odds.

It's looking like it's going to be a wet track again, so I'm staying away from the horses who had trouble with it in the Derby; i.e. Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday

2013 Kentucky Derby Picks: Top 5 and Long Shot

Here's the recap from my Triple Crown picks last year (Click Here)

The weather in Louisville is looking pretty sloppy, so this one is any horses race. 

1. Verrazano (14)
2. Revolutionary (3)
3. Goldencents (8)
4. Normandy Invasion (5)
5. Palace Malice (10)

My long shot picks (at least 20-1) for the day: Palace Malice (10) and Frac Daddy (18)

2013 Final Four: Pomeroy + LRMC Profiles

2013 Sweet 16 Pomeroy + LRMC Profiles

Back in Part 3 I identified the top 30 teams who had the best profiles to make the Elite 8.  Specifically calling out the top 12 teams with the most likely chance to make it based on the profiles of previous Elite 8 teams.  Of those 12 teams, 10 are still in play, and highlighted in green.

History shows that over the past four years, 69% of the Elite 8 has been comprised of teams who started with an OE and DE equal or less than 40.  Also, 88% of team featured an LRMC equal/lower than 25. Based on that and the directions teams are headed in their OE/DE, here would be my updated Elite 8:

• Louisville vs. Duke
• Michigan vs. Florida
• Indiana vs. Miami
• Wichita St. vs. Ohio St.

2013 Bracket: My Picks (Part 5)

2013 Bracket: Expert Picks (CBS, Yahoo!, SI, ESPN) (Part 4)

Many years ago I came across an article in an in-flight magazine about picking the Oscars.  It was a study by Harvard (I think) and it basically said that when the majority of people made the same pick, it usually ended up being the correct pick. Of course now I can't find the article to reference, so you'll just have to take my word for it.  All that said, I figured I would try to apply the theory for bracket picks.  In short, it's basically like aggregating the knowledge of the top college basketball minds of ESPN, SI, Yahoo! and CBS.  This has proven to be the most helpful for guidance in some of the 8/9, 7/10 and 5/12 match-ups.

Highlights:

• Total Expert Brackets: 21
• Total picks for Lousiville as National Champ: 17
• First Round:
• Upsets (Majority of picks for lower seeded team): Iowa St, Colorado, and Minnesota
• VCU, New Mexico and Florida each received all 21 picks.
• 
  
• Elite Eight Match-ups (Based on majority of picks): Gonzaga/Ohio State, Indiana/Miami, Louisville/Michigan State, and Kansas/Georgetown (Georgetown gets tie-break based on more picked them to advance to Final Four)
• Final Four: Lousiville/Ohio State and Miami/Kansas
• 
  
• Championship: Lousiville over Miami (Miami had most picks for final two)

CBS Expert Picks: Here
Yahoo! Expert Picks: Here
CNN SI Expert Picks: Here
ESPN Expert Picks: Here

2013 Bracket Picks: Pomeroy + LRMC Sokol = Elite 8 (Part 3)

Per my post last year, there is a certain profile that Elite 8 teams have when looking at their composition of Ken Pomeroy's offensive and defensive efficiency (OE & DE), as well as the LRMC model.  

This model helped me accurately identify six of the eight Elite 8 teams, and I was four for five on the teams I identified as my most confident picks. 

Here is what an ideal candidate profile looks like:

• LRMC ranking of 30 or less
• OE and DE rankings of 40 or less

Each of the teams who fit that profile are highlighted in green:

Based on this info, and applying it to the brackets, here would be my reco for the safest Elite 8 picks:

• South: Kansas (1) and Florida (3)
• West: Gonzaga (1) and Ohio State (2)
• East: Indiana (1) and Miami (2)
• Midwest: Lousiville (1) and Michigan St. (3)

The bolded picks are the ones I have the most confidence in based on the teams they'd face.

Iowa State and Colorado State most resemble Florida's pre-tourney profile from last year, while no one really compares to last year's Louisville profile.