Friday, September 16, 2011

CFB Week 3 - Boise State at Toledo (+20, 59.5)

Looking to make it back-to-back picks before heading into the weekend.  The line opened at -17 in favor of the Broncos and flew all the way to -20, where it will likely close.  People love the Broncos because they are a covering machine on the road going 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games (Covers.com).

Boise State at Toledo (+20, 59.5)
The Quick Zip:

  • The Broncos have had two weeks to rest and prepare for this match-up, while Toledo only had four days to recover from their emotional loss at the hands of the Buckeyes. Boise has never been a team to look ahead, and will not take Toledo lightly despite blowing them out by 43 points last year.
  • Toledo surrendered 27 points to a solid, but not great Buckeye offense last week, and the week before New  Hampshire managed 22 points while committing a total of 5 turnovers!  The Broncos take care of the football, having averaged less than 1.5 turnovers last year, and only gave Georgia the football once in week 1.
Toledo will likely go on and win the MAC, but they're nowhere near Boise's level yet.
The Pick: Boise State -20

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