Saturday, September 17, 2011

CFB Week 3 - Saturday Picks

It's College Football Saturday and we're heading into the weekend 2-0 thanks to LSU and Boise State.  Let's keep the good times rolling...

Northern Illinois at Wisconsin (-16.5, 64.5) Note: Game is at Soldier Field
The Quick Zip:

  • Kansas and Army amassed 253 and 303 rushing yards respectively against Northern Illinois in the first two weeks. The Badgers come into the game ranked 23rd in the nation averaging 224.5 yards on the ground per game.
  • Northern Illinois relies on the run game averaging 38 attempts  and 218 yards per game.  Wisconsin is boasting the 27th ranked rush defense, only allowing an average of 84.5 yards per game.
Make no doubt about it, even though the game will be played in Illinois there will be a sea of red full of Badger fans.  In the end Russell Wilson becomes the x-factor and the Badgers cruise.

The Pick: Wisconsin -16.5

Oklahoma at Florida State (+3, 54.5)
The Quick Zip:

  • Florida St. comes into the game ranked 3rd in Total Defense with 137.5 yards per game. It's worth mentioning that their first two games were against UL-Monroe and Charleston Southern, not exactly what I'd call high power offenses.
  • I'm buying Oklahoma as one of the teams in the BCS championship, so I expect them to come out with a statement game.  With two weeks rest the team is healthy, the defense will be ready, and the offense will fly as always, enough said.
The Pick: Oklahoma -3

Nevada at San Jose State (+6, 54)
The Quick Zip:
  • San Jose State features one of the worst run defenses in the country, allowing 206 yards per game. Despite Kaepernick's and Taua's departures, the pistol offense faired well against the Ducks in the Wolfpack's first game, collecting 283 yards on 51 carries for a 5.5 average.
  • Nevada's defense returns seven starters, which should provide some continuity.  I won't hold the 69 point thrashing at the hands of Oregon against them, given it was a road game in tough environment, and the Ducks were needing to bounce back from the loss to LSU.
The Pick: Nevada -6

Arkansas State at Virginia Tech (-24, 54)
The Quick Zip:
  • On the road at Illinois in week 1, the Red Wolves offense only managed 15 points and turned the ball over three times.  The Hokies have a much better defense than the Illini and pride themselves on forcing turnovers.
  • Virginia Tech loves to run the ball and they've proven to be effective as they've averaged 248.5 yards per game.  Arkansas State had trouble stopping Illinois who racked up 202 yards against them.
These two teams are just on different levels.  The Hokies received their wake-up call last week in a near-loss to ECU, so there's no way they overlook this game.

The Pick: Virginia Tech: -24

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