Saturday, September 24, 2011

CFB Week 4 - The Early Games

Toledo at Syracuse (-2, 56.5)
The Quick Zip:

  • Just last week, before going against Boise State, people were ready to anoint Toledo as the leader of the new wave of mid-major BCS busters.  Granted they still got rolled by Boise, but if you take away the meaningless (As in it didn't matter for Boise, but it did help them cover.) 4Q TD, the final score would have only been 15-33, which is respectable given their two turnovers in the game.
  • Syracuse has not done anything to wow anybody: An OT win over a weak Wake Forest team, barely slipping by Rhode Island, and getting picked apart by Matt Barkley and the Trojans. They haven't been particularly tight on defense either, allowing 391 yards and 27 points per game.
Maybe I'm missing something, but Toledo should have the fire power to squeeze these Orangemen.

The Pick: Toledo +2

SMU at Memphis (+24, 54)
The Quick Zip:
  • Memphis couldn't stop a toddler in high heels if it came running at them.  They feature the 109th ranked run defense allowing 222.7 yards per game.  SMU should be able to abuse them with their lead running back Zach Line who has 359 total yards and 8 total TDs on the season so far.
  • SMU has had the tendency to give the ball away with a -5 turnover margin on the season.  However, Memphis' offense has never seemed to figure out how to translate their defense's takeaways into points.
This is a pretty big number, and barring any major meltdown by the Mustangs it should be out of reach for the Tigers by half time and then SMU will just keep grinding out through the second half.

The Pick: SMU -24


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