Sunday, September 11, 2011

NFL Week 1 Picks

The first NFL Sunday of the season.  If you're anything like me, you woke up early you were so excited. Picking games in the first couple weeks can be dicey because we don't know who these teams are, but it also means there's lots of opportunity to be found in the lines. It's time to find the value and the keep good things rolling after a hot start in the Packers-Saints game.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (-1, 37)
The Quick Zip:

  • Jacksonville just cut QB David Garrad last week after he had been running the first team offense all pre-season and handed the reins over to Luke McCown.  He has played in a grand total of 16 games since 2004 and thrown a whopping 9 TDs to 11 INTs
  • With Chris Johnson in the line-up, the Titans are liable to score at the drop of a dime against one of the weaker run defenses in the league
The Pick: Tennessee +1

Detroit at Tampa Bay (-1, 42.5)
The Quick Zip:
  • Pre-season games mean absolutely nothing, so it's completely irrelevant that the Lions won and covered in all four.  The last real pieces of info we have are the Lions won and covered at home against the Vikings in week 17.  That same week the Buccaneers won and covered at New Orleans
  • Josh Freeman is ready to lead the Bucs into the playoffs and he has the offensive arsenal to do it with Blount, M. Williams, Benn and Winslow. I'm not concerned with a strong Lions defensive line if there is no secondary to back them up
The Pick: Tampa Bay -1

Minnesota at San Diego (-9, 41.5)
The Quick Zip:
  • With Rivers, V. Jackson, Gates, Floyd and the Matthews/Tolbert combo, the Chargers have the weapons and potential to be one of the top offenses in the league.  Their defense was tops in the league last year allowing only 271.6 yards/game
  • Similarly, the I expect the Vikings to come to life on offense again under McNabb.  Adrian Peterson will keep teams honest at the line and McNabb will be able to get the ball down the field
Predicted Score: Chargers win 24 -17
The Picks: Minnesota +9, Under 41.5

Oakland at Denver (-3, 40)
The Quick Zip:
  • Denver had the second worst rush defense in 2010 giving up an average of 154.6 yards/game, while Oakland boasted the second best running attack gaining an average of 155.9 yards/game
  • Denver's offense isn't the same pass happy one that Josh McDaniels ran, so I question their ability to be successful if they rely on Knowshon Moreno. He has yet to crack the 1,000 yard mark in his first two seasons
The Pick: Oakland +3

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