Saturday, September 24, 2011

NFL Week 3 Picks

When I initially looked at the card this week I admittedly didn't like what I saw.  After taking a closer look throughout the week, there were quite a few games that seemed that appeared to have some good value.  Let's take a peek...

Miami at Cleveland (-1, 41.5)
The Quick Zip:

  • Cleveland's defense struggled at home against Cincinnati in week 1 (294 yards and 27 points against).  Miami brings in a lot more fire power through the air with Henne and looks to build on the run game with rookie Daniel Thomas.
  • In this situation Miami is looking to grab its first win after having to deal with the offensive onslaughts of Brady and then the high flying Texans.  Cleveland is likely feeling a little too overconfident with that puffed up win over Indy last week.
With Hillis battling strep throat, McCoy is going to have to come up with the answer and Miami will be ready.

The Pick: Miami +1

Denver at Tennessee (-6.5, 42.5)
The Quick Zip:
  • If you've read my fantasy rankings for this week, you know I'm high on CJ2K to have his breakout week.  Denver has the 28th ranked rush D and gave up 150 yards to Run DMC in week 1.
  • Tennessee's defense has looked respectable in their first two games, giving up only an average of 276 yard and 14.5 points per game.  Denver has had trouble finding their rhythm on offense with recent injuries, and with those players likely stepping back into the line-up I expect them to be a step behind.
Tennessee should be able to control the flow of the game with their running attack and force Orton to beat them.

Predicted Score: Tennessee wins 24-17
The Picks: Tennessee -6.5 and Under 42.5

Houston at New Orleans (-4, 51.5)
The Quick Zip:
  • In this situation we have Houston playing their second road game in a row, coming off a hard fought game against Miami.  New Orleans is getting to stay at home for the second week, and they were able to put it on cruise control in the second half against the Bears last week.
  • Both teams have serious scoring power with the Texans averaging 28.5ppg and the Saints 32ppg.  Don't let the Texans 10ppg and 271 yards against on defense fool you, it was against a Manning-less Colts and a regrouping Dolphins who put up those weak numbers.
The Texans just haven't truly been tested in their first two weeks, but they'll manage some points.

Predicted Score: New Orleans wins 34 - 24
The Picks: New Orleans -4 and Over 51.5

Baltimore at St. Louis (+4.5, 42.5)
The Quick Zip:
  • After the big week 1 win over the Steelers, the Ravens were likely feeling themselves a little too much and had the let down in Tennessee.  I except them to be grounded and refocused, simple as that.
  • Cadillac had trouble finding running room against the Giants (13 car / 36 yards), and was forced to be a spectator to Bradford as the Rams played from behind.  Bradford was less than 50% on his completion percentage last week on 46 attempts. 
The Ravens will force the Rams to be a one trick pony and I don't think Bradford is ready to make a stand.

The Pick: Ravens -4.5

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (+10.5, 39.5)
The Quick Zip:
  • It's no secret that the Colts have yet to find themselves on offense without Manning.  The Steelers defense regrouped against the Seahawks last week and pitched the shut-out, and I expect a similar performance here.
  • Big Ben got back on track against last week going for almost 300 yards and 1 TD.  Mendenhall's day looks promising as the Colts line up with the 29th ranked rush defense.
The Steelers offense is too balanced for the Colts and Indy's offense will continue to struggle.

The Pick: Pittsburgh -10.5

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