Sunday, September 11, 2011

Quick Zip Preview - 2011 NFL Fantasy Football

In case you don't want to sift through my fantasy football draft results and try to decipher my strategies, let me just hit you with a few Quick Zips to summarize how I ended up with the teams I did:

Air Mail in the NFC East:

  • Big fan of the Dallas Cowboys passing game this season, as they should be going to the air quite a bit and have a soft schedule against the pass.  I looked for Romo, Austin and Witten whenever possible, and some might say I reached a bit in a few drafts.
  • While the New York Giants have typically been known as a running team, Eli's passing numbers have been on the rise the past few years.  Given the injuries to the defense, and the weak schedule they face against the pass, don't be surprised to see his numbers continue to climb, and his key WRs (Nicks and Manningham) along with them:
    • Att/Comp/Pct: 479/289/60.3 (2008), 509/317/62.3 (2009), 539/339/62.9 (2010)
    • Yards/TDs/Ints: 3,238/21/10 (2008), 4,021/27/14 (2009), 4,002/31/25 (2010)
Next-Gen Receivers:
  • Last year I targeted the likes of Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Malcolm Floyd and Jacoby Jones as they all seemed poised to have their big breakouts.  Needless to say with Nicks and Wallace in most people's top 10 this year, it worked out well.  The guys I like this year already showed some signs of greatness last year, but I expect them to go even bigger this year: Jeremy Maclin, Mario Manningham and Steve Johnson. 
Don't Sleep On Them:
  • Without fail, I can typically find the right guy in the right situation that most people have overlooked.  To be in consideration, the players average position they're getting drafted in (if at all), must be lower than where I believe they have potential to end up at the end of the season.  Three years ago it was Kurt Warner with 4,500 yards and 30 TDs. Two years ago it was Cedric Benson rising from the dead for 1,200 yards and 6 TDs.  Last year it was Hakeem Nicks' breakout season when he racked up 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. My sleeper pool for this year is as follows: 
    • Note: These were all picks I made for my own teams before they became popular across the fantasy world or even played this past Thursday
    • RB: Shonn Greene, Tim Hightower, Pierre Thomas, Brandon Jacobs
    • WR: Brandon Marshall, Lance Moore, Jordy Nelson, Arrelious Benn
    • QB: Sam Bradford
    • TE: Lance Kendricks, Brandon Pettigrew
Avoid at All Costs:
  • Every year there are a handful of players I just dread and refuse to draft.  This is always based on their previous performances, the offense they're in or how their schedule stacks up against their position.
    • RB: Peyton Hillis, DeAngelo Williams, CJ Spiller or Fred Jackson, Reggie Bush, Knowshon Moreno, Marshawn Lynch
    • WR: Brandon Lloyd, Marques Colston, Dewayne Bowe, Santonio Holmes, Kenny Britt, Sidney Rice, Steve Smith
    • QB: Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler

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