Sunday, October 9, 2011

NFL Week 5 - Quick Hit Picks

New Orleans at Carolina (+6.5, 51): Despite the 1-4 record, Cam Newton has proven a lot of people wrong (myself included) and this guy can flat out throw.  Aaron Rodgers threw for 295 yards against Carolina, so expect Brees to get his as well.  Final Score Prediction: 31-24 The Pick: Over 51

Oakland at Houston (-5, 48): This match-up features two of the top backs in the NFL and two of the weakest rush defenses.  I expect both teams to establish the run, which will open up some nice big plays over the top. Final Score Prediction: 27-24 The Pick: Over 48

Cincinnati at Jacksonville (+1, 37): The Bengals are coming in off an emotional win at home against the Bills, so I'm looking for them to come out a little flat.  Jacksonville's defense isn't flashy, but has been solid against the Panthers and Saints the last two weeks. I recognize the question marks for how the Jags will score, so call it a gut pick.  The Pick: Jacksonville +1

New York Jets at New England (-7.5, 50.5): The Patriots running game will be the difference-maker of this game.  The Jets have one of the worst rush defenses and both BJGE and Ridley have come on in a big way for the Pats backfield the last two weeks.  The Pick: New England -7.5

Philadelphia at Buffalo (+2.5, 52.5): Yes, Philly has been the biggest disappointment of the year, but don't forget how talented this team is. The Bills are coming off a tough loss to the Bengals in which they were dominated through the air and on the ground. The Pick: Philadelphia -2.5

Arizona at Minnesota (-3, 45): While the Vikings have had trouble across the board, they particularly have struggled against strong QBs who can catch their team up in a hurry.  Kevin Kolb is not that QB, and Arizona has been unable to close games out.  The Pick: Minnesota -3

Tampa Bay at San Francisco (-2.5, 41): The 49ers seem to be playing on borrowed time and I think the clock runs out today.  Yes, they beat the Eagles, but that was courtesy of a terrible rush D and three Eagles turnovers  The Bucs can stop the run and I wouldn't be worried about Alex Smith's cannon, which has averaged less than 200 ypg.  The Pick: Tampa Bay +2.5

Green Bay at Atlanta (+5.5, 52.5): We've yet to see a defense that can slow the Packers down and Atlanta's 26.2ppg against is not going to cut it.  On the flip side, Green Bay is still allowing 335.8 passing ypg, so Roddy White and Julio Jones should be handful for them.  Final Score Prediction: 35-28 The Picks: Green Bay -5.5 and Over 52.5

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