Monday, December 5, 2011

2011 CFB Heisman Trophy - Breaking Down the Stats

Anyone who gets a vote for the Heisman will tell you there's more to it than just the stats and that's true.  For the pure sake of argument, I wanted to put together a review of the pertinent stats for the players who will be making the trip to New York City as a means to pick a candidate. Obviously with one only defensive player in the mix, Mathieu will own those categories, but overall it's a lot closer than one might think.

Here are the rules for the system:
  • All offensive stats require at least three instances to be considered.
  • Top three players ranked in each category and earn points accordingly (1:3, 2:2, and 3:1)
  • Tie-break: What else would it be other than the player's team ranking in the BCS

Luck
Griffin III
Richardson
Ball
Mathieu
Pass Comp. %
70%
72.40%

100%

YPCompletion
8.5
10.8

28.5

Pass Yards
3,170
3,998

57

TDs
35
36

1

INTs
9
6



Rushing Yards
153
644
1,583
1,759

YPCarry
3.6
4
6
6.4

Rushing TDs
2
9
20
32

Receiving Yards
13
15
327
255

YPCatch
13
15
12.1
12.8

Receiving TDs


3
6

Punts (Avg. Yards)

3 (33)



Returns (Yards)


3 (66)
1 (15)
33 (420)
Return TDs




2
Tackles
1

2

71
Sacks




1.5
FF


1

5
Def. INTs




2
Def. TDs




2
Total Points
11
21
19
20
21


And the winner is... The Honey Badger, Tyrann Mathieu, with the BCS tie-break.


All numbers aside, I think Mathieu should get it. He's the best player on the best team in the country and over the past two weeks proved that he is a game-changer.  It was his two punt returns that sparked the LSU comebacks and helped lead them into the BCS Championship game. Unlike his offensive counterparts he has to create his own plays rather than compile stats as a product of his offensive system. 

Why I don't like the other guys:
Luck couldn't run the table after all of the hype, and this award isn't for the player with most promising NFL future.  RGIII, while extremely exciting, still has three losses on his resume and didn't step up in the big games.  Richardson is a strong runner on the second best team in the nation, but Alabama is a rush first offense, running almost 60% of the time on offense.  Ball has gaudy stats from a bunch of blow-outs and the privilege of running behind arguably the nation's top offensive line.

In the end, I'm sure Richardson will get it though.

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