Friday, March 30, 2012

2012 Final Four: Pomeroy + LRMC Team Rating Trends

Unlike the most recent years, there isn't a huge shocker in the mix like a Butler or VCU.  One could try to make the case for Louisville, but let's be honest, the West region was the most wide open region, and the Cardinals are a 4 seed. Not to mention they had a Pomeroy + LRMC profile that showed long-shot potential with a 23 LRMC and #2 DE prior to the tourney.

This year's Final Four features the best of best when it comes to rankings and ratings:


Louisville will be the highest rated team in OE to reach the Final Four since I have been keeping track.  It's clear their superior DE has kept them in the tournament, but it wouldn't be without their 16% increase in OE.  This is always a must for teams of this profile to survive, just ask Tennessee a few years back.
Sheet23
.
Pre TourneyB4 Sweet 16CurrentS16 Change +/-
.
LRMCOEDEOEDEOEDEOEDE
.
Kentucky126292110-2
.
Ohio St.2716172-1-1
.
Kansas38816516401
.
Louisville23122211621021141
.

At this rate we are clearly headed for a Wildcat/Buckeye showdown.  Having watched the tournament unfold, the clear edge is with Kentucky.  That said, it's not surprising that 16 of the 19 experts picked Kentucky, but I'm still holding out for Kansas.

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