Sunday, March 11, 2012

Picking a Bracket: Pomeroy + LRMC = Elite 8 - Part 3

Taking a quick peek back at Part 1, there is a certain profile that Elite 8 teams have when looking at their composition of Ken Pomeroy's offensive and defensive efficiency (OE & DE), as well as the LRMC model.  Here is what an ideal candidate profile looks like:
  • LRMC ranking of 30 or less
  • OE and DE rankings of 40 or less
Each of the teams who fit that profile are highlighted in green:
Sheet12
.
KenPom Rank
.
TeamLRMC RankOff. Eff.Def. Eff.
.
Kentucky126
.
Ohio St.271
.
Kansas388
.
Michigan St.4113
.
North Carolina51312
.
Wichita St.61018
.
Missouri7176
.
Syracuse81415
.
Belmont91278
.
Memphis101911
.
Indiana11458
.
Duke12962
.
Wisconsin13244
.
New Mexico143213
.
Georgetown15477
.
Vanderbilt161731
.
Baylor171534
.
Marquette182519
.
Saint Louis193610
.
Long Beach St.205438
.
Gonzaga244235
.
UNLV275628
.
Kansas St.294417
.
California305021
.

Per Part 1 , over the past three years, of the teams who improved their OE and DE during the tournament, the DE (+13) was done so at a higher average than the OE (+9).  This might lead me to believe teams will have more opportunity to step up their DE up during the tournament to a greater degree than OE.  That said, of the second tier teams (yellow), a couple of teams who might have the better chance to make the Elite 8 are Indiana and Duke.

Based on this info, and applying it to the brackets, here would be the safest Elite 8 picks:
  • South: Kentucky (1) and Baylor (3)
  • West: Michigan State (1) and Marquette (3)
  • East: Syracuse (1) and Ohio State (2)
  • Midwest: UNC (1) and Kansas (2)
The picks I've bolded I have the most confidence in based on how the bracket is set up.  Here is what the non-bolded teams potentially face in their round of 32 and Sweet 16 match-ups:
  • Kentucky: Wichita State (5) and Indiana (4)
  • Michigan State: Memphis (8), St. Louis (9) and New Mexico (5)
  • Syracuse: Kansas State (8), Vanderbilt (5) and Wisconsin (4)

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