Monday, March 19, 2012

Sweet 16, Elite 8, and Final Four Picks: LRMC + Pomeroy

We've arrived at the Sweet 16 and it is a very loaded group of teams.  Of the most likely scenario for Elite 8 teams that I identified (See Part 3 Here), all 8 remain in the field.  Additionally of the 17 teams I identified as top Elite 8 candidates, 10 of them have made the Sweet 16.  Some trends to note after the rounds of 64 and 32, heading into the Sweet 16:

  • Only Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Louisville and Syracuse faced and beat one of my top rated Elite 8 candidates.  Due to match-ups, at most only 3 of these teams can advance to Elite 8.
  • Over the last three years... 
    • Of teams that reached the Elite 8, 88% of them held or increased their Pomeroy Offensive Efficiency.  For the Final 4, the number jumps to 92%. Of the remaining 16, the only teams that have decreased their OE are Kansas and Marquette.
      • Note: Each of these comparisons are made to pre and post tourney ratings only and do not for example take into account what a team's OE was after their Elite 8 game and before their Final 4 match up.  That said, use these trends as directional guidance.
    • Of teams that reached the Elite 8, 79% of them held or increased their Pomeroy Defensive Efficiency.  For the Final 4, the number jumps to 92%. Of the remaining 16, the only team that has decreased their DE is Kentucky
    • Of teams that reached the Final 4, 67% of them had a greater increase in DE than OE. Teams currently pacing that trend: Kansas, UNC, Indiana, Florida, Cincy and Xavier
    • Of teams that reached the Final 4, there were exactly two each year who had an LRMC ranking of 20+
      • Each of these teams also featured a pre-tourney OE of less than 60.  There are three candidates that fit this profile: Florida, Cincy and NC State.  Based on the previous bullet, both Florida and Cincy are the two likeliest upset candidates to reach the Final Four.  


Sheet21
.
Pre Tourn.CurrentChange +/-
.
LRMCOEDEOEDEOEDE
.
Kentucky126290-3
.
Ohio St.2716110
.
Kansas388165-83
.
Mich. St.41138330
.
UNC51312131101
.
Syracuse8141591550
.
Indiana11458446012
.
Wisconsin1324420440
.
Baylor171534123430
.
Marquette1825192916-43
.
Florida223119374045
.
Louisville231222116260
.
Cincy495127492225
.
NC State513375277263
.
Ohio66114508947253
.
Xavier716963625479
.

If I were making picks based on the trends above, they would be as follows:
  • Elite 8: Indiana vs.Baylor, Michigan State vs. Florida, UNC vs. Kansas, and Syracuse vs. Cincy
    • Notes: Indiana is in based on increasing their DE (vs. a declining DE for Kentucky.) Cincy and Florida make it based on their upset profile as noted above.
  • Final 4: Indiana vs. Florida and Kansas vs. Cincy
    • Notes: Kansas over UNC due to Kendall Marshall's injury. If Marshall is 100%, UNC gets nod for increasing DE vs Kansas' declining OE.  
  • Final: Kansas over Florida
    • Note: Florida selected because past three runner-ups have had an LRMC rank in the 20's

I will be shocked if this scenario plays out, but anything is possible when it comes to March Madness.

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