Wednesday, December 5, 2012

2012 Heisman Trophy - Picking by Stats

I did this last year (here) and I ended up with a tie between RGIII and The Honey Badger himself.  My tie-break system gave it to Mathieu, but it seemed close enough, so I figured why not run it again this year.  That said, I'm adding a little bit of a twist because I think there should be more than just three finalists, so I added who I believe the next two should be, and rated them all together.

Here are the rules for the system:
  • All offensive stats require at least three instances to be considered.
  • Top three players ranked in each category and earn points accordingly (1:3, 2:2, and 3:1)
  • Tie-break: What else would it be other than the player's team ranking in the BCS

J. Manziel C. Klein M. Te'o M. Lee J. Lynch
Pass Comp. % 68.3% 66.2% 62.9%
YPCompletion 12.5 13.8 13.3
Pass Yards 3,419 2,490 2,962
TDs 24 15 24
INTs 8 7 5
Rush Yards 1,181 890 106 1,771
YPCarry 6.4 4.6 8.8 6.5
Rush TDs 19 22
Receiving Yards 1,680
YPCatch 15
Receiving TDs 14
Punts (Avg. Yds) 1 (63)
Returns (Yds) 28 (802)
Return TDs 1
Tackles 103 2 1
Sacks 1.5
Def. INTs 7
Def. TDs
Total Points 16 13 12 20 22

When it's all said and done, the two players I added ended up finishing one and two.  Jordan Lynch ends up taking it down as he edged out Lee with the lone punt he had, which shows his versatility.  If you go back to my stats last year, it was RGIII who had three punts of his own on the year, and gave him the boost in points he needed to win.

Overall I think it's a weak Heisman class, especially by only bringing three players to NYC. If we take the extra guys out, Manziel looks to be the first Freshman to win the award based on my numbers.  He has strong stats passing and running and it always helps to have the SEC standing behind you. Klein has pretty moderate numbers, especially when you consider his passing stats.  I mean he has a less than 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio, and it's only 15TDs.  For T'eo, I get the story he brings to the table and that he put the Irish on his back all the way to number 1.  However, Mathieu was a much more impressive defensive player and was literally a game changer on multiple occasions. Maybe given the soft competition, T'eo might have the best shot ever for a defensemen to come out on top for a Heisman.

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