Sunday, March 17, 2013

2013 Bracket Picks: Pomeroy + LRMC Sokol = Elite 8 (Part 3)

Per my post last year, there is a certain profile that Elite 8 teams have when looking at their composition of Ken Pomeroy's offensive and defensive efficiency (OE & DE), as well as the LRMC model.  

This model helped me accurately identify six of the eight Elite 8 teams, and I was four for five on the teams I identified as my most confident picks. 

Here is what an ideal candidate profile looks like:
  • LRMC ranking of 30 or less
  • OE and DE rankings of 40 or less
Each of the teams who fit that profile are highlighted in green:

Based on this info, and applying it to the brackets, here would be my reco for the safest Elite 8 picks:
  • South: Kansas (1) and Florida (3)
  • West: Gonzaga (1) and Ohio State (2)
  • East: Indiana (1) and Miami (2)
  • Midwest: Lousiville (1) and Michigan St. (3)

The bolded picks are the ones I have the most confidence in based on the teams they'd face.

Iowa State and Colorado State most resemble Florida's pre-tourney profile from last year, while no one really compares to last year's Louisville profile. 

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