Saturday, March 16, 2013

2013 Bracket Picks Strategy: Pomeroy, LRMC, Stats & Experts (Part 1)

Check out my first post for 2014 updates here

Last year was my first go-round posting my bracket picking strategies.  Using a combination of advanced statistical analysis from the likes of Ken Pomery and Joel Sokol, expert picks and on-going stats trends, I managed to pick a solid bracket, though I went against the grain of the consensus pick of the Wildcats:

2012 Bracket Pick Results:
  • National Champion: 0/1
  • Championship Match-up: 2/2
  • Final Four: 3/4
  • Elite Eight: 5/8
  • Sweet 16: 9/16
My strategies allow me to pick winners deep in the tournament when it matters most.  I have been using this strategy for years with success, but last year was the first time it was documented.

Below is an update from my first bracket strategy post last year to the key variables I track...

Ken Pomeroy + LRMC + Elite 8
Elite 8 ranking trends of Pomeroy's and Sokol's numbers...

OE/DE Profiles of Elite 8 teams since 2003:

  • Every team has had at least an OE or DE rank less than 60
  • 78 of 80 teams had a pre-tournament OE less than 60
  • 72 of 80 teams had a pre-tournament DE less than 60
Pre-tournament stats over the past four years (2009 - 2012):
    • National Champions Averages: 6 OE and 19 DE
    • Final Four Teams Averages: 28 OE and 27 DE
    • Elite Eight Teams Averages: 24 OE and 29 DE
    • 22 teams (69%) featured an OE and DE equal or less than 40

LRMC Highlights over past four years of Elite 8 teams:

  • 28 of 32 (88%) teams had ranking lower than 25
  • 14 of 16 Final Four teams had rankings lower than 25
  • 30 of 32 teams had ranking lower than 30
  • National Champions Average: 6
  • Final Four Teams Average: 17
  • Elite Eight Teams Average: 15


The numbers for these profiles appear to have held up over last year's tourney, so no reason to change course this year.  I'll have updated profiles after the bracket is announced.

Top 10 Stats Rank
With Kentucky winning it all last year, the National Champion top 10 stats rank trend continued...
NCAA Champ Top 10 Stats
.
YearChampionPts/GmReb/GmFG%FT%3Pt%Ast/GmStl/GmBlk/Gm
.
2012Kentucky81
.
2011Connecticut10
.
2010Duke9
.
2009North Carolina222
.
2008Kansas10327
.
2007Florida110
.
2006Florida1
.
2005North Carolina111
.
2004Connecticut1861
.
2003Syracuse72
.
2002Maryland48926
.

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