Tuesday, March 25, 2014

2014 Bracket: Elite Eight and Final Four Picks

The Sweet 16 is here, so let's check in on the teams who made it and how it stacks up to the profiles we created back in Part 3 and the Deep Sleepers Post. The teams highlighted were a part of the original list of most likely candidates to make the Elite 8, while the last three teams were all noted as teams with a profile to be a Deep Sleeper to the Elite 8.

To read the "Change" numbers, if a team has a "Positive (+)" change, it means they improved their OE or DE, and vice versa. Note that all of the Deep Sleepers have significantly stepped up their Defensive Efficiency.

Based on this past weekend's games, and sticking the likely profiles for the Elite Eight and Final Four, here are my picks for the weekend:

  • EE: Florida and Dayton -> FF: Florida
  • EE: Arizona and Wisconsin -> FF: Arizona
  • EE: Michigan State and UConn (If Niang was playing, this would be Iowa State because the pre-tourney 80 OE for UConn is too high for the model.) -> FF: Michigan State
  • EE: Louisville vs Tennessee -> FF: Louisville

Looking forward to another great couple rounds of games and seeing how the picks hold up.

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