Wednesday, March 19, 2014

2014 Bracket: Picks and Final Thoughts


In the end I think this year's bracket has a really good chance of looking like 2011's.  That said, I think we should be in for some good surprises this year, and I've tried to pick a few of them.  Only taking a few gambles, but ultimately my Elite 8 field holds true to my numbers, so here goes nothing...


Key Upset Picks:

  • New Mexico St to Sweet 16. See some of my previous posts for details. 
  • Baylor to Sweet 16. 
  • Kentucky to Elite 8. KY, Louis and WSU all fit the Elite 8 profile to a "T". I was really high on Louisville before I started digging into the details.  Every Louisville loss was to a ranked opponent, and I fear their #1 LRMC is inflated due to blowouts against really weak opponents. I think the Shockers are paper champions as well, and the Wildcats get them with the size.  If Louisville wins it all, I will follow them blindly in all future years.


Random Notes:

  • Syracuse or Kansas for Elite 8.  If Embiid was playing it would be a no-brainer and I'd actually pick them to win it all. Given he's out for the whole first weekend and maybe longer, I just can't roll the dice on the Jayhawks.   
  • If not obvious below, I think it was Michigan State and not Louisville who was actually under-seeded.  The Spartans have far better wins, and won a significantly better conference tournament.  They somewhat remind me of the 2011 UConn team that won the Big East tourney and had a very similar LRMC/OE/DE at 18/21/31 (MSU: 12/11/39)
  • I'm not loving Iowa State in the Elite 8, but I hate them the least of the other options.  
  • The choices made in the Midwest bracket will ultimately make or break everyone's bracket who picks the right national champion. 


Good luck everyone!

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