In the last two years I've posted on the blog, this model has helped me pick 10 of the 16 Elite 8 teams, and I was 6 for 8 on the teams I identified as my most confident picks.
Here is what an ideal candidate profile looks like:
Based on this info, and applying it to the brackets, here would be my reco for the safest Elite 8 picks. The ones that are bolded are the ones I have the most confidence in based on the other teams they'd potentially face in the list above. :
Interesting Items of Note:
- 4 of last 5 National Champions had a better OE rank than DE before the tournament.
- 4 of the last 5 NCs had at least an OE or DE of either 1 or 2: AZ, VCU, Duke and Creighton
- Last year, Michigan had an LRMC of 9, OE of 2 and DE of 58. This year, the Badgers are 11/5/58.
- Last year, Wichita State was a 9 seed with a 22/50/30 line. This year, the Zags are an 8 seed with 17/49/13.
- Last year, Syracuse was a 4 seed with a 15/16/23 line. This year Michigan State is a 4 seed with 12/11/39.