Sunday, March 16, 2014

2014 Bracket Picks: Pomeroy + LRMC Sokol = Elite 8 (Part 3)

Per my post last year, there is a certain profile that Elite 8 teams have when looking at their composition of Ken Pomeroy's offensive and defensive efficiency (OE & DE), as well as the LRMC model.  

In the last two years I've posted on the blog, this model has helped me pick 10 of the 16 Elite 8 teams
, and I was 6 for 8 on the teams I identified as my most confident picks. 

Here is what an ideal candidate profile looks like:
  • LRMC ranking of 30 or less
  • OE and DE rankings of 40 or less
Each of the teams who fit that profile are highlighted in green:

Based on this info, and applying it to the brackets, here would be my reco for the safest Elite 8 picks. The ones that are bolded are the ones I have the most confidence in based on the other teams they'd potentially face in the list above.  :
  • South: Florida (1) and Syracuse (3)
  • West: Arizona (1) and Wisconsin (2)
  • East: Michigan State (4) and Villanova (2) - I put MSU over Virginia because of the better OE rank, as I believe MSU has a better chance to improve their DE than Virginia does in improving their OE during the tourney.
  • Midwest: Louisville (4) and Duke (3) - It will be a toss up between WSU and Louisville, so I'm giving Louisville the edge on LRMC.

Interesting Items of Note:
  • 4 of last 5 National Champions had a better OE rank than DE before the tournament. 
  • 4 of the last 5 NCs had at least an OE or DE of either 1 or 2: AZ, VCU, Duke and Creighton
  • Last year, Michigan had an LRMC of 9, OE of 2 and DE of 58. This year, the Badgers are 11/5/58.
  • Last year, Wichita State was a 9 seed with a 22/50/30 line. This year, the Zags are an 8 seed with 17/49/13.
  • Last year, Syracuse was a 4 seed with a 15/16/23 line. This year Michigan State is a 4 seed with 12/11/39.

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