Monday, March 10, 2014

2014 Bracket Picks Strategy: Pomeroy, LRMC, Stats & Experts (Part 1)

Whether this is your first, second or third year following my bracket strategies, welcome!  Please note I will be publishing my team profiles and picks once the bracket is announced, so come back to check those out early next week.

For those first-time visitors, last year marked the second time I posted my bracket picking strategies.  I use a variety of advanced statistical analysis sources from the likes of Ken Pomery and Joel Sokolexpert picks and on-going stats trends. You can reference my overall strategy from the original post in 2012:

Here are my 2013 Bracket Pick Results:
  • National Champion: 0/1
  • Championship Match-up: 1/2
  • Final Four: 1/4
  • Elite Eight: 4/8
  • Sweet 16: 11/16
  • Note: I did have Florida Gulf Coast in the first round.

Below is an update from my original 2012 bracket strategy post to the key metrics I track...

Ken Pomeroy + LRMC + Elite 8
Elite 8 ranking trends of Pomeroy's and Sokol's numbers...

OE/DE Profiles of Elite 8 teams since 2003:

  • All 88 teams have had at least one OE or DE rank less than 60
  • 86 of 88 teams had a pre-tournament OE less than 60
  • 80 of 88 teams had a pre-tournament DE less than 60
Pre-tournament stats over the past five years (2009 - 2013):
    • National Champions Averages: 8 OE and 15 DE
    • Final Four Teams Averages: 27 OE and 27 DE
    • Elite Eight Teams Averages: 22 OE and 28 DE
    • 27 teams (68%) featured an OE and DE equal or less than 40

LRMC Highlights over past five years of Elite 8 teams:

  • 35 of 40 (88%) teams had ranking lower than 25
  • 18 of 20 Final Four teams had rankings lower than 25
  • 37 of 40 teams had ranking lower than 30
  • National Champions Average: 5 (UConn is highest at 18, without them 2 is the average)
  • Final Four Teams Average: 16
  • Elite Eight Teams Average: 15

Top 10 Stats Rank
With Louisville winning it all last year, the National Champion top 10 stats rank trend continued...

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