Saturday, March 14, 2015

2015 Bracket Picks: Elite 8 Deep Sleepers (Part 5)

Last year was the first time I posted anything about deep sleepers.  Of the seven teams I identified, three of them ended up as Sweet 16 teams, with two advancing to the Elite 8.  Those teams were Baylor, Stanford and Dayton.  Here's a link to last year's post.

Unfortunately there isn't an obvious answer to even a short list of teams, given that 11 qualify based on the metrics used to identify candidates.

Despite strong OEs, I'm going to cut Indiana and Davidson because their DE is just too atrocious to overlook, down to 9. I'm going to cut Buffalo, Boise St, Oklahoma St, and Purdue because of higher LRMC ranks, their OE rating being on the higher end and their DE rating being nothing special, down to 5.

Iowa, Providence, NC State, Mississippi and Stephen F. Austin would be my best bets for Elite 8 deep sleepers.  I think for sure at least 2 of these teams make the Sweet 16, and in my opinion it's most likely SFA and Iowa based on bracket path.

It should be noted that with both Texas and BYU have a pretty strong profiles for 11 seeds, and could just as easily fall into the Deep Sleeper bucket. However, since they were each a top 30 in LRMC they were captured in that analysis.  

You check out my other posts about the 2015 Bracket here:

Overall Bracket Strategy & Insights

How to Spot National Champion Candidates

Find the Best Elite 8 Candidates with Advances Stats (KenPom + LRMC)

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