Saturday, March 14, 2015

2015 Bracket Picks Strategy: Pomeroy, LRMC, Stats & Experts (Part 1)

2015 NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks Strategy


Welcome back to the fourth year of my NCAA Basketball bracket analysis. 

If you're just checking the blog out for the first time, my basic strategy is to simplify the advanced stats from sources such as Ken Pomery and Joel Sokolexpert picks and on-going stats trends


Here are my 2014 Bracket Pick Results:
  • National Champion: 0/1
  • Championship Match-up: 0/2
  • Final Four: 1/4 (#WouldaCouldaShoulda on the Badgers)
  • Elite Eight: 5/8 (Included Kentucky!)
  • Sweet 16: 11/16 (Dayton and Stanford both qualified as Deep Sleepers, but I didn't pick them.) 

Here are the details from my original 2012 bracket strategy post with the key metrics I track...

Updating the Ken Pomeroy + LRMC + Elite 8 numbers through 2014
Elite 8 ranking trends of Pomeroy's and Sokol's numbers...

OE/DE Profiles of Elite 8 teams since 2003:


  • All 96 teams have had at least one OE or DE rank less than 60
  • 93 of 96 teams had a pre-tournament OE less than 60
  • 86 of 96 teams had a pre-tournament DE less than 60
Pre-tournament stats over the past six years (2009 - 2014):
    • National Champions Averages: 20 OE and 15 DE (The OE is now greatly skewed by UConn's OE of 80 last year. Without UConn it is an average of 8.)
    • Final Four Teams Averages: 27 OE and 27 DE (No change from last year.)
    • Elite Eight Teams Averages: 25 OE and 31 DE
    • 30 teams (63%) featured an OE and DE equal or less than 40

LRMC Highlights over past six years of Elite 8 teams:


  • 41 of 48 (85%) teams had ranking lower than 25 (2014: UConn 26, Dayton 50)
  • 44 of 48 teams had ranking lower than 30
  • 21 of 24 Final Four teams had rankings lower than 25
  • National Champions Average: 9 (The 2011 and 2014 UConn teams increase this average significantly at an 18 and 26 ranking respectively.)
  • Final Four Teams Average: 16
  • Elite Eight Teams Average: 15

Top 10 Stats Rank for National Champ Pick
The good news for this theory is that UConn was top 10 in FT% and Blocks/Game, however, given they were a 7 seed, they weren't identified as true candidate.


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