Saturday, March 14, 2015

2015 NCAA Bracket Picks: Pomeroy + LRMC Sokol = Elite 8 (Part 3)

The long and short of it, I combine Ken Pomeroy's and Joel Sokol's advanced stats to find teams with the right profile of an Elite 8 team.

There is a certain profile that Elite 8 teams have when looking at their composition of Ken Pomeroy's offensive and defensive efficiency (OE & DE), as well as the LRMC model.  

In the last three years I've posted on the blog, this model has helped me pick 15 of the 24 Elite 8 teams
, and I was 9 for 11 on the teams I identified as my most confident picks. 

Here is what an ideal candidate profile looks like:

  • LRMC ranking of 30 or less
  • OE and DE rankings of 40 or less
Each of the teams who fit that profile are highlighted in green.  As an update to the ranking this year, I have added teams from year's past that had a similar to the teams this year:

* Edit: Please note Michigan State should be a yellow highlight because their DE is above 40, but below 60 *

2015 NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks KenPom Pomeroy LRMC Joel Sokol

Applying the info above to a bracket, here's my first take on the Elite 8 picks based on the profiles (Please note that my final bracket may have alternate picks due to further analysis):

Midwest: Kentucky (1) & Notre Dame (3)

South: Duke (1) & Iowa St (3)  I couldn't give it to the Zags because Iowa and Davidson both have Deep Sleeper profiles

West: Wisconsin (1) & Baylor (3) The Baylor pick is purely based on the historical success of the profile

East: Louisville (4) & Virginia (2) On paper Nova looks like the safe pick, but I believe their profile is inflated due to their schedule

I know, I know, three 1 seeds in my mix of most confident picks... 

Here is a link to last year's analysis

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