The long and short of it, I combine Ken Pomeroy's and Joel Sokol's advanced stats to find teams with the right profile of an Elite 8 team.
There is a certain profile that Elite 8 teams have when looking at their composition of Ken Pomeroy's offensive and defensive efficiency (OE & DE), as well as the LRMC model.
In the last three years I've posted on the blog, this model has helped me pick 15 of the 24 Elite 8 teams, and I was 9 for 11 on the teams I identified as my most confident picks.
Here is what an ideal candidate profile looks like:
- LRMC ranking of 30 or less
- OE and DE rankings of 40 or less
* Edit: Please note Michigan State should be a yellow highlight because their DE is above 40, but below 60 *
Applying the info above to a bracket, here's my first take on the Elite 8 picks based on the profiles (Please note that my final bracket may have alternate picks due to further analysis):
Midwest: Kentucky (1) & Notre Dame (3)
South: Duke (1) & Iowa St (3) I couldn't give it to the Zags because Iowa and Davidson both have Deep Sleeper profiles
West: Wisconsin (1) & Baylor (3) The Baylor pick is purely based on the historical success of the profile
East: Louisville (4) & Virginia (2) On paper Nova looks like the safe pick, but I believe their profile is inflated due to their schedule
I know, I know, three 1 seeds in my mix of most confident picks...
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